The Polycrisis: Concerning, but also an opportunity for positive change

Jul 6, 2023 2:55:34 PM

"Organisations can effectively balance the effects of a crisis by incorporating economic data into organisational planning and forecasting, researching the geopolitical effects on a sector/industry, and helping individuals make sense of the world in a chaotic time."

By Tom Marsicano, CEO of 'and Change', a global advisory and change management consultancy

The Ukraine conflict, the hangover of the pandemic, economic recessions, mass inflation – it's no wonder people feel bombarded by circumstance. According to the World Economic Forum, the planet is amid a so-called "Polycrisis". The word cropped up throughout panel discussions at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos with experts evaluating the short- and long-term challenges facing the planet for the Forum's Global Risks Report 2023.

Defined as "disparate crises interact(ing) such that the overall impact far exceeds the sum of each part", it's a term that unnerves people worldwide. Yet for those of us in South Africa, who are used to facing economic constraints and infrastructural issues like loadshedding and water interruptions, we know that even during a crisis (or multiple crises), there are opportunities to bring about positive change.

Considering the vast amount of change many countries, organisations, and individuals have faced over the past few years, it's no wonder that change adaptability has become an increasingly valued skill.

The entities (and the people within those entities) adept at problem-solving, keeping an open mind, and being willing to change are most likely to thrive – even during a crisis.

As change management practitioners, we are the people who build organisational change capability, and what we've noticed among our most successful clients – and in other case studies – is that scenario planning is more valuable than ever. Scenario planning is about asking the "what if" questions and trying to find the best decisions in the face of uncertainty – before the impact of a crisis hits.

Organisations can effectively balance the effects of a crisis by incorporating economic data into organisational planning and forecasting, researching the geopolitical effects on a sector/industry, and helping individuals make sense of the world in a chaotic time.

Yes, it requires deep research, analysis, and time, but proactive scenario planning can reveal the crossover effects of this ongoing polycrisis and help find the solutions to help us stabilise. But these scenarios aren't only for the present.

These solutions can be applied across various situations and ultimately can be a significant part of ensuring an organisation is adaptable and – even more importantly – agile.

Cost constraints don't just emerge in an economic recession. New ways of working should be implemented beyond the pandemic. Disruptions occur regardless of global conflict. Therefore it's essential always to be prepared for the unexpected and be capable of change.

We've also had to become significantly more agile in the change management industry. It's what I've called Adaptive Change Management. While our fundamentals are still the same, we've had to learn to apply these methods in new and original ways. While we used to focus on the leadership level to guide organisations through change, we've had to accept that a multi-level approach is more effective – and a requirement in these change-heavy times. We must still secure the sponsorship from leaders but also recognise the impacts of a change across an organisation. These include financial factors, social factors, and even mental health effects on individuals. In a nutshell, change managers have had to become more sophisticated.

We've had to solicit people's input from across organisations to get the complete picture surrounding potential change and understand that this context is essential to our work. The more diverse the feedback, the better we can plan to address potential resistance, help people cope, and reaffirm the importance of a change.

Recently, the Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) released a report about the polycrisis – and said that future-fit leaders are essential to navigating the current global business environment.

"A future-fit leader in the 21st century requires much deeper insights beyond knowing how to run a business," says GIBS' Abdullah Verachia. "To be able to respond to a rapidly evolving business sector and external environment, you need the understanding of what's happening in the world around you; politically, digitally, technologically, socially, and environmentally."

As change managers, we have to be these leaders and help those we work with to become capable of handling any crisis.

Tom is a Founder and Director of 'and Change' in South Africa. He is also the founding member of the Association of Change Management Professionals (Africa) and has served as a Director on the Board of ACMP Global.